Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
